Author: Dai Shuanping, professor and doctoral supervisor of School of Economics of Jilin University, and researcher of China State-owned Economic Research Center of Jilin University.
The Central Economic Work Conference in 2023 emphasized: "We must take the promotion of Chinese modernization as the greatest politics, unite the overwhelming majority of the people under the unified leadership of the Party, focus on the central task of economic construction and the primary task of high-quality development, and turn the grand blueprint of Chinese modernization into a beautiful reality step by step." It is of great theoretical and practical significance to accurately understand the theoretical wisdom and practical requirements contained in it for building a socialist modern country in an all-round way and promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with Chinese modernization.
Promoting high-quality development is the primary task for China to move towards a moderately developed country. Leading the construction of modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation is a realistic choice for China to promote new industrialization at present. The modern industrial system is the foundation of the new development pattern, the basic framework for promoting high-quality development and the core component of the modern economic system. Science and technology, education and talents are the strategic supporting forces to promote Chinese modernization. A new round of scientific and technological revolution with artificial intelligence as the core is entering an all-round expansion period and will profoundly change the future economic form. Therefore, exploring new industries, new models, new kinetic energy and developing new quality productivity is an important way for China to seize future development opportunities.
Diversified layout, regional cooperation, green transformation and digital empowerment are the distinctive features of the current global industrial system and industrial chain supply chain reshaping. In 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference not only emphasized "improving the new national system", "vigorously promoting new industrialization" and "supporting key core technology research, new infrastructure, energy conservation, emission reduction and carbon reduction", but also proposed "building a number of strategic emerging industries such as bio-manufacturing, commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, opening up new tracks for future industries such as quantum and life sciences, widely applying digital intelligence technology and green technology, and accelerating the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries". Ecological civilization construction and green low-carbon development also fully reflect the characteristics driven by technological innovation. "Green low-carbon supply chain", "realization mechanism of ecological product value", "new energy system" and "intensive recycling and efficient utilization of resources" are all closely related to the construction of modern industrial system.
Modern industrial system and scientific and technological innovation are mutually conditional and mutually supportive. Scientific and technological innovation leads the construction of modern industrial system, and industrial development is the soil for continuous scientific and technological innovation. In some frontier science and technology fields, China is changing its role from "runner" to "runner" or even "leader". However, how to play a leading role in basic research and cutting-edge core technologies requires China to make major reforms and explorations in the national innovation system. To promote the close integration of scientific and technological innovation and the construction of modern industrial system, it is necessary to continuously promote the popularization and application of intelligent and green technologies in manufacturing industry, continuously optimize the business environment, continuously stimulate the vitality of innovative subjects, open up new scenes, new fields and new tracks for innovation, establish new ones and break old ones, and accelerate the construction of a modern economic system.
Expand domestic demand consistent with high-quality development requirements. Modern economic system is a sustainable economic system driven by scientific and technological progress, with high efficiency in resource allocation and continuous upgrading of industrial structure and product quality. Effective internal demand is the fundamental guarantee for stabilizing the economic system. However, effective demand is not static. Demand should face the future, guide resource allocation, and promote industrial structure and product quality improvement. Therefore, tapping new consumption and other new consumption growth points that meet the needs of high-quality development and effectively support new industries, new models and new kinetic energy is the key work direction to expand domestic demand. At the same time, to form effective demand, it is necessary to enhance people’s consumption confidence and satisfaction. In 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference put forward corresponding measures to expand the effective demand of residents from the perspectives of implementing new development concepts and building a new development pattern. For example, "promoting urban-rural integration and coordinated regional development", "promoting new urbanization with county towns as an important carrier" and "building livable, resilient and smart cities" can all expand the total demand. Similarly, giving priority to people’s livelihood and employment has sent a strong signal to stabilize social expectations. Only by building a sound social security system can residents be willing to spend and dare to spend.
Deepen reform in key areas and expand high-level opening up. Domestic reform and opening to the outside world are the most basic experience summary of China’s economic construction. The Central Economic Work Conference in 2023 highlighted two basic points of work: reform in key areas and high-level opening to the outside world. Fully activating the endogenous motivation and innovation vitality of various business entities is the basic foothold of deepening the reform in key areas, treating state-owned enterprises and private enterprises equally, promoting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises in a new direction of specialization, serving the new round of scientific and technological revolution and helping high-quality development. It is worth noting that the meeting proposed to plan a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform, which will be of great significance to building a modern economic system and establishing a risk prevention mechanism in key areas.
High-level opening to the outside world pays attention to tapping new kinetic energy of foreign trade, and expands and consolidates the foundation and depth of international exchanges based on new economic development models, new kinetic energy and new industries. Focus on expanding intermediate trade, service trade, digital trade, cross-border e-commerce export, and promoting the opening up of the service market, which shows that China’s foreign trade pattern has undergone fundamental changes, and traditional raw materials and processing and manufacturing have not adapted to the requirements of China’s high-quality development. With the reshaping of the industrial chain value chain, Chinese enterprises have been deeply embedded in the global value chain, and the importance of intermediate trade is getting higher and higher, and the status of producer service trade and digital trade in the trading system is gradually improving. Meanwhile. The construction of such institutional systems as "high standard economic and trade rules", "cross-border flow of data", "market-oriented, rule-of-law and international first-class business environment" and "investing in China" should also meet the requirements of China’s new development pattern and high-quality development as soon as possible.
Prevent and resolve risks in key areas. In 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that "next year, we should persist in striving for progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking", and put forward the working bottom line of "stabilizing expectations, growth and employment". The working idea of "stabilizing" is embodied in social stability, implementing a prudent monetary policy, maintaining the basic stability of RMB exchange rate at a reasonable level, stabilizing and expanding traditional consumption, ensuring the employment stability of key groups, and ensuring the supply and price stability of important livelihood commodities.
"Striving for progress with stability, promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking" embodies China’s new thinking in dealing with the relationship between reform and development, as well as new strategies to reduce the pain of reform and stabilize social mentality. What "stands" is not only the new quality productivity, but also the new economic governance mode. At present, the risks of real estate, local debts and small and medium-sized financial institutions are the three major risk areas. Based on this, this paper puts forward some concrete work ideas to prevent and resolve risks, such as "three major projects", "accelerating the construction of a new model of real estate development" and "a big economic province should really take the lead". These schemes are based on the premise of maintaining overall stability, setting buffer zones, gradually absorbing risks, and minimizing the possible negative impact of "breaking".
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